The 20/200 DMA stairstep breakout

Study the July 15 breakout of the SPX above the downtrend channel
sandwiched by the 20DMA and the 200DMA. This is the initial
signal of buy. Wait for the break above the previous top 956.23 on
June 11. Buy the large candle on July 23.

Very strong pattern. Stop at 950, adjust upwards by 25 points for
every 50 point gain. Target is 50% Fibonacci level of drop from
1576 to 666 at 1121, followed by equal move from 666 to 956 which
from recent low of 869 stands at 1159.

The weekly evening star and daily triggers - Correction

This is a correction to the stop loss point mentioned in the previous blog.
I had said the "halfway of the weekly red candle plus 50, at 4450".

When I look back at the week in question, the open was at 4583
and the close at 4313. The halfway point is 4448. A fifty cushion
gives the stop loss point at ~4500.

We are still in the trade, and profiting beautifully! In my next
posts, I will discuss the profits made on the first 2 trading
opportunities which I have presented in this blog.

The weekly evening star and daily triggers - 2

Continuing from the previous post. Look at the daily chart above.

We will see it now, at 4350 or whatever price we get on the
next open.

The stop loss will be half the big red reversal weekly candle
after the evening star doji. That is at 4400. We give it a
50 point cushion and place it at 4450.

Thus in essence we will keep a 100 point trailing stop
and hope to ride this down to wherever it ends. The first
target is the 62% Fibonacci retracement level of the
March to June advance, which resides at 3900.

Risk to reward is 5.5 to 1.

The weekly evening star and the daily triggers - 1

The evening star is a set of 3 consecutive candles as can
be seen at the 4693.20 top around the 2nd week of June 09
on the weekly chart of the nifty above. It is a strong signal
when accompanied by -

1. RSI coming down from overbought levels
2. A strong inflexion point - note the 4500 level acting
as resistance and support at various points in the past
3. A possible double top - note 4649.85 in August 2008.

As usual, what are the entry and exit points?

There is always a strong possibility that the instrument
will make one more move up for a double-top in the RSI.

We will look at the daily chart for the trading triggers
in the next post.

The hourly bar channel trade 1

Please refer to the hourly candlestick chart of the E-Mini S&P 500 above.

While it is well-known that one buys the bottom of the channel, where
are the reference points. We need two -

1. A buy trigger point somewhere above the bottom of the channel.
2. A stop loss point somewhere below that and coinciding with the bottom of the channel.

We also need the standard bull trend situation where 3 SMA's are all
rising in concert and in the direction of the trend.

In the chart above, this situation develops from 4/29.

The trade is as follows-

1. Buy the instrument on 4/30 at the 40 SMA.
2. Set trailing stop at the 60SMA - 40SMA difference ( 6.25 points )
3. Take profit at the upper end of the channel ( about 26 points above entry )
and readjust each day.

The risk-reward ratio is a handsome 4-1 or better.